Thursday, January 5, 2012

Tomorrow's employment report: cross your fingers ...

- by New Deal democrat

With the last month's decline in initial jobless claims, I thought it would be worthwhile to re-run a couple of graphs.

Here is the most recent graph comparing population-adjusted initial jobless claims with payrolls, from 2009 to the present. A change in the population adjusted initial jobless claims rate is mirrored in the unemployment rate, frequently with a 1 or 2 month delay (note this graph does not include the last 4 weeks' data of claims):

This suggests that it is likely we will see a new post-recession low in the unemployment rate tomorrow.

Similarly, if the trend comparison between initial jobless claims and payrolls holds, with the 4 week average now at about 372,000, we should see about a 200,000 gain (+/- 75,000) in private jobs tomorrow:

Even if both happen, it's still a long, slow, painful slog of a recovery. Cross your fingers ....