Friday, November 4, 2011

Morning Market

Yesterday, I noted it was possible to look at the 10 day, 5-minute chart as a forming head and shoulders pattern.  Yesterday's rally eliminated that possibility, with the market now in a slight uptrend.

The daily chart prints a clear picture, however.  My guess is the market is actually consolidating at important technical levels, catching its breath as it digest the Greek situation.  We have seen some wild gyrations, but notice the overall weakness of 5 of the last 6 days' candles.   Also note that volume hasn't spiked, indicating a lack of conviction/emotion in the market

And while we've seen some strength in the Treasury market, the reality is it too is trading around the 10, 20 and 50 day EMA.

While gold caught a small bid over the last few days -- and while it still remains above it's long-term trend line -- there is a lack of volume indicating a lack of interest.

Overall, the daily moves this week can be seen as part of a larger consolidation move in all the markets.  The equity markets rallied strongly a starting a few weeks ago, and now traders are taking profits and reassessing their positions.  The treasury market sold off, but now, again, traders are looking at the recent price action in terms of the larger picture to see what might come next.