Thursday, November 3, 2011

Morning Market

The IWMS (The Russell 2000) has broken the shorter uptrend.  Yesterday's rally took prices right to the trend line hitting upside resistance.

The SPYs may be forming a head and shoulders formation, which would mean lower prices are in the cards.  Typically, I like more defined head and shoulder patterns, but the general price moves are head and shoulder"ish."

In contrast to the SPYs and IWMs, the DIAs are more bullish.  While prices did break a short-term trend line, they also fell to technical support and have moved higher. 

The equity markets are in a difficult place.  While the US data is getting a bit better -- and while the fear of a double dip recession have faded -- Greece's announcement on Monday that it would put austerity to a referendum qualifies as a "one step back" news development, literally sucking the wind out of the bulls' sales.

In contrast to equities, we have the treasury market, which was inter-twined with the EMAs for a week and a half, before gapping lower and then moving sharply higher in reaction to the Greek announcement.  While we saw a good volume spike yesterday, that has not accompanied by a price increase, meaning traders are at least pausing from the current rally.

The 10-day 5-minute chart shows that action in more detail; we can see that over the last two day prices have consolidated in a narrow range (103.8 - 104.6), digesting the quick move higher.

As I noted yesterday, the Greek announcement was a fundamental game changer.  The charts show the markets are tying to digest the news.