Thursday, August 25, 2011

Friday Dollar Analysis

Last week, I wrote the following about the dollar:
Until the dollar moves convincingly below the 20.9 area, we're still in a trading range.
In addition, I noted on Tuesday that the dollar was nearing support levels:
The dollar has been trading in a fairly tight consolidation range for the last 4 months -- between 20.9 and 21.7. The dollar is now approaching critical support levels. Also note the technical, upside resistance the dollar faces in the form of three declining EMAs -- the 10, 20 and 50.

Later this week, Bernanke will be at Jackson Hole, where he will speak on Friday morning. I have no idea what he's going to say -- but the dollar appears to be anticipating another round of easing in one form or another. If these levels hold through Friday, I'd place stops below support.
As we approach the all important Jackson Hole meeting, the dollar is still hovering at critical levels:

The dollar is hovering above key support in the upper 20s with a very bearish EMA picture. Ben's speech will be key here.