Monday, September 28, 2009

Market Mondays

Let's take a look at last week's action. As always, you can click on all images for a larger image.

1.) Prices were in a slight uptrend for the first almost three days.

2.) Prices were in a tight range (from roughly 106.60 to 107.40) on Tuesday and Wednesday as the market awaited the Fed's decision.

3.) Once the Fed announced its decision the market tried to rally but couldn't maintain upward momentum. The rally stalled, fell through the trend line thereby breaking the weekly trend and continued falling. Note that prices consolidated in a triangle pattern at the beginning of Thursday only to continue falling. Triangles are both reversal and continuation patterns.

4.) Notice the incredibly high volume that occurred on the sell-off. This tells us that bears were in complete control. In addition, it also tells us that people were looking for a reason to sell.

5.) After the sell-off prices again consolidated in a pretty tight range (104.60 to 105.40).

6.) Prices wanted to move lower but couldn't. They eventually rose and then sold-off to resistance established earlier in the day.

There are two trend lines are important to this market. The first (2) connects the lows from early March and early July. The second connects the lows of early July and early September. Currently, prices are resting right at the first trend line in addition to the 20 day EMA.

Notice that prices at points 1, 2, and 3 display a similar pattern. They all involved a sell-off to points just below the 20 day EMA. The primary difference between the first two and point three is the volume. Point three has a higher volume level than either 1 or 2.