Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Today's Markets

I'm going to use a longer view again today to show what the markets did.

Yesterday I commented that the SPYS were forming a triangle consolidation pattern. Today they broke out of that pattern only to form another, 1-day consolidation and then break out lower after the pattern formed.

Notice on this chart the lack of any decent direction. In theory, markets are supposed to rally after a consolidation pattern. But here we have a break out followed by a correction. In short, there isn't a lot of bullish conviction here.

Yesterday I commented that the QQQQs were forming an upward sloping triangle. Today we see that the QQQQs were also in an upward 3 1/2 day trend which they convincingly broke on high volume.

The IWMs broke a 2 day rally on strong volume. Also note this average is whipsawing around with no firm idea where it wants to go.

Here's an exercise for everybody. Pull back and just look at the charts. What do you see? Garbage -- there isn't anything strong in one direction or the other. While you could make an argument for the QQQQs, the really heavy sell-off after the rally makes me question the bull's conviction. That volume sure looks like "let's get the hell out of here .... NOW".

The markets are meandering, moving from one event to the other without any longterm conviction in either direction. The Fed as frozen the bears for now, and the economy as a whole has frozen the bulls. It's an ugly Sargasso Sea in trading land right now.