Monday, February 11, 2008

A Closer Look At the Oil Market

It's been awhile since I've looked at the oil market in detail, so let's see what the charts say.

Since November the market has been trading between roughly between $87 and $100. There is also a consolidation triangle formed from the beginning of 2008 until the indexes' recent upside breakout. The simple moving averages are bunched up indicating the market is looking for direction.

What's interesting with this chart is the lack of serious downside move despite the increased talk of a recession. Theoretically, a recession in the US would lower demand and therefore lower prices. But we haven't had that yet. There is still support in the upper-80s. The recent tone from Chavez in Venezuela doesn't help the sell-off and also indicates the oil market is still vulnerable to geo-political tensions (as it always is).

On the weekly chart, notice two important points.

1.) The market is still in a rally, that started at the beginning of last year.

2.) The market is clearly consolidating. We don't have an strong signs either way which way the market will move. A recession should send prices lower, but more political issues should send the index higher.

I originally thought this might be the formation of a double top, but the market proved me wrong.