Thursday, February 14, 2008

Clearing Out the Noise

I am not a big fan of line charts. I think candlestick charts give us far more useful information. But sometimes you need to use a different method of looking at the market to clear out the noise and see what is really going on. And line charts show the underlying market trend far better than candlestick charts right now.

On the SPYs, notice we have a clear triangle consolidation pattern.

On the QQQQs we have a downward sloping channel with a trend break. That could a bullish turnaround from a technical perspective.

On the IWMs, notice we have a bear market flag.

Bottom line: I still see a bear market with a temporary rally or consolidation going on.

Of course, it's also important to remember Bonddad's first rule of trading: the markets will make an ass of you whenever possible, and the markets have a ton of tools at their disposal to do that.