- by New Deal democrat
In addition to my system of long and short leading indicators, and the weekly high frequency data, the third system I use to mark to market my views of the economy is what i call “the consumer nowcast.”
Consumers are 70% of the economy. Their sources of new spending include wages and salaries, refinancing existing debt at lower rates, and cashing in or borrowing against appreciating assents. When the spigots for all of these are turned off, and consumers start getting more cautious, a recession ensues.
Yesterday and today, for the first time in many months, I updated that tool, and it is posted over at Seeking Alpha. While it isn’t negative, the situation of consumers is more precarious than it might appear on the surface.
As usual, clicking over and reading will bring me a penny or two in lunch money, as well as hopefully being educational for you.
