- by New Deal democrat
I’m on the road today, and won’t have time to update anything until tonight.
So here is what to look for in initial and continuing jobless claims.
Remember that the most important figure for forecasting purposes is the YoY% change. One year ago, initial claims came in at 221,000, the four week average at 225,250, and continuing claims at 1.831 million.
A positive result would be numbers lower than those. A neutral result is any number in the weekly and four week average of initial claims lower than 10% higher YoY. For initial claims, depending on revisions to last week’s number of 221,000, 10% plus higher would be 244,000. More importantly, YoY 10% plus higher for the four week average of initial claims would be 248,000, again depending on revisions to last week’s numbers.
Continuing claims + initial claims are good for forecasting the near term trend in the unemployment rate, so any number higher than 1.831 in continuing claims plus 221,000 in initial claims, or 2.052 million total) suggests a higher trend in the unemployment rate vs. one year ago. Last week that combined figure was 2.151 million.
Continuing claims + initial claims are good for forecasting the near term trend in the unemployment rate, so any number higher than 1.831 in continuing claims plus 221,000 in initial claims, or 2.052 million total) suggests a higher trend in the unemployment rate vs. one year ago. Last week that combined figure was 2.151 million.
