- by New Deal democrat
Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession
I am still highlighting these because of their leading nature for the economy overall. These were generally positive:
Wages of non-managerial workers
Aggregate hours and wages:
Other significant data:
This was a mixed report. Most of the headlines were positive, but there were several important internal weaknesses. Most importantly, permanent layoffs increased, and the manufacturing workweek declined. This is a warning that the manufacturing surge may be ebbing, while temporary job losses are metastasizing into permanent ones. The headline number of job gains was by far the least positive of any gains since April.
On the other hand, all of the other leading job categories showed increases in employment. Additionally, both average and aggregate hours and payrolls continued to increase pretty strongly. Aggregate payrolls are back where they were a year ago (of course, inflation has eaten away at some of that rebound).
The overall tone remained positive - but the “least positive” of the last 6 months.
UPDATE: One thing I neglected to mention was that there were -99,000 government job losses. Without those, the gain in employment would have been 344,000. Better, but still the “least positive” number since April.