Sunday, November 1, 2020

The final 2020 Senate nowcast: 51 Democrats, 48 GOPers, 1 true toss-up


 - by New Deal democrat

Here are the final maps for the Senate, including all polls since October 1. I’ll post the Presidential nowcast separately later, since it is going to be significantly longer this week. 

To refresh, In the first map below:

- States where the race is closer than 3% are shown as toss-ups.
- States where the range is between 3% to 5% are light colors.
- States where the range is between 5% and 10% are medium colors.
- States where the candidate is leading by 10% plus are dark colors.

This results in a map showing 50 Democratic seats, 43 GOP, and 7 toss-ups.

In the 2nd map below, any race with a gap of 1%+ but less than 5 is designated a “lean:”

There are 5 Senate races where the GOP is ahead by more than 1% in the polls, but less than 3%. One of those is the Georgia Senate special election, which is likely to head to a run-off in January. If all of the D and R candidate votes go over to the two survivors, the GOP candidate is a slight favorite. The only Democratic pickup is Iowa. The one true toss-up is the Ossoff vs. Perdue race in Georgia.

So, the final 2020 forecast for the Senate is that the Democrats will win a *very* slim majority, and lose 4 or 5 more heartbreakingly close contests.