Thursday, June 27, 2019

Initial jobless claims: positive this week, but close to crossing two thresholds for concern

by New Deal democrat

I have started to monitor initial jobless claims to see if there are any signs of stress.

My two thresholds are:

1. If the four week average on claims is more than 10% above its expansion low.
2. If the YoY% change in the monthly average turns higher.

Here’s this week’s update.

The four week average is 9.8% above its recent low:

On a weekly basis, YoY the average is +0.3% higher than this week last June.

Last June the monthly average was 222,000. With one week still to go this June, it is 221,250:

Depending on revisions to this week’s number, if next week comes in at 222,000 or higher, that will cross the first threshold. If it comes in at 224,000 or higher, it will cross the second threshold as well.