Saturday, December 24, 2016

Weekly Indicators for December 19 - 23 at

 - by New Deal democrat

My Weekly Indicators column is up at

There has really been a shift in much of the data since the presidential election.  On the one hand, interest rates have spiked, as has to some extent the US$ and at least one measure of risk in bank lending rates. Gas prices continue to trend in the direction of becoming a headwind.

Interestingly, for the last several weeks holiday consumer spending as measured by Gallup has also weakened -- which is completely at variance from the surge since the election in consumer sentiment as measured both by Gallup and monthly by the University of Michigan.

This negativity is also at odds with the surge in the stock market.

It may be that the fortunes of producers and consumers are about to diverge in a big way.