Friday, December 30, 2016

Marking my 2016 forecast to market

(Plus a pyrrhic political presidential prediction)

 - by New Deal democrat

How did my economic forecast for2016, made one year ago, pan out?  The result is Up at

While it wasn't an economic forecast, I did use economic data to make a forecast the 2016 presidential election, that the candidate of the incumbent party would eke out a narrow victory.

Just before the election, my final personal forecast was

Clinton 49.5%
Trump 46.0%
Third parties 4.5%

According to the Cook Political Report, the final result was

Clinton 48.2%
Trump 46.1%
Third parties 5.7%

So my prediction was pretty darn close, but of no use whatsoever because of the state by state distribution of that result.