Friday, September 21, 2012

Morning Market Analysis

On the SPYs daily chart (bottom chart) we see that prices have consolidated in a downward sloping pennant pattern, moving into the 10 day EMA for technical support.  This is a standard consolidation move after a move higher.  The top chart (which is a 30 minute chart) shows the consolidation in more detail.  The underlying technicals on the lower chart are still positive -- all the EMAs are moving higher, the MACD is bullish and the CMF is positive. 

The IEF chart shows that the treasury market is consolidating in a pennant pattern.  However, notice the weakening MACD and very negative CMF reading.  Also notice that the EMAs now have a slightly lower trend to them. 

Like the equity market, gold has been consolidating its gains this week.  The top chart  -- the 30 minute chart -- shows that prices have rallied three times in the last month, followed by periods of consolidation.  We see the same situation on the daily chart in the lower chart.  Also note the very bullish orientation of the lower chart -- rising EMAs, rising MACD and strong CMF position.

The weekly copper chart shows that prices are still consolidating at low levels.  There is a slightly rising trend line on the bottom.  I've drawn a horizontal line on the top because we don't know where the exact trend line is right now -- it would be just as appropriate to draw a rectangle around the the last years worth of price action.