Thursday, February 23, 2012

Morning Market Analysis

I wanted to start with oil today, to show how the weekly chart is progressing.  Notice that the prices have little resistance before they hit the 115 level.  The MACD is still low, money is flowing into the market, and the EMAs are bullishly aligned.  In short -- this is a chart that says go long to at least the 115 level.

Industrial metals have rebounded from their recent drop, but are still below the 200 day EMA.  Also note the now tangled position of the EMAs, which show a jumbled mess right now. 

The weekly chart for junk bonds is very telling.  It shows a strong uptrend that has broached previous highs with plenty of momentum.  Money is flowing into the market and the EMAs are very bullish. 

The weekly LQD charts sends the same message as the JNK chart: investors are putting money into the high grade corporate market to obtain a better yield over government bonds.  This chart is also bullishly aligned on many fronts -- positive MACD, strong EMA picture and good A/D line.  The CMF, however is a bit weak.

The above two charts show there is no "crowding out" of  private equity in the current market.

The 30 minute SPY chart shows that after breaking through the 135 level, prices have had a hard time maintaining upward momentum.  However, the have currently found support at previous resistance (roughly the 135 level), which is standard behavior for the market.

The daily QQQ chart shows that prices are right at important support -- the uptrend started in mid-December.  The next few trading sessions are going to be very important.

 While not as close to a trend as the QQQs, the IWMs are approaching the same type of situation.