Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Morning Market Analysis: It's About Perspective

The IWMs show that prices are still between 81.5 and 83 -- effectively in a trading range.

Which is reinforced by the daily chart.  However, prices ares still above the trendline that started in early October.  However, we still have a negative MACd and the CMF is showing a slight decrease.

But the weekly chart really shows what's probably going on: a triangle consolidation after a major move higher.  Here, notice the strong underlying technical nature of the indicators, which are all strongly positive.

The weekly chart for the SPYs shows that prices have moved through resistance at the 135 level and are still moving higher. 

In fact, the monthly SPY chart shows a good trend in place -- prices have moved through resistance and have a pretty clear sailing until the late 2007 prices.

In fact, the QQQ monthly chart is very strong: prices continue to make highs.

Regarding my concerns from earlier this week (see here): these charts greatly lower them.  What we are seeing is a longer term trend moving higher; what is currently happening is prices stalling out a bit as traders think about where we are in the big cycle and whether that's warranted or not.