This posting is part of the Bonddad Economic History Project
was quite moderate. The YOY percentage change started at 4% and slowly
decreased throughout the year to a little under 1%. Now, this type of
deceleration can also be a sign of a potential recession on the horizon,
which did start in the 3Q of 1953.
The YOY percentage change in PPI was negative for the entire year, indicating the input prices were dropping.
The above charts shows the absolute PPI level for the year, which shows the drop more completely.
above table shows the increase in various types of loans over the
year. Note the slow pace at the beginning of the year, while we see a
big bump in the 4th quarter. We see two reasons for the increase.
Business loans increased, with almost all of the increase coming in the
fourth quarter. In addition, "other loans to individuals" increased by
$2.2 billion , but this increase came from a strong growth in the
second, third and fourth quarters (for more on the increase in consumer
credit, see the 1952; PCE post).
above tables shows that corporate security issues rose strongly in
1952, and competed for commercially available capital. The increase in
4th quarter lending was probably partially caused by an inability to
complete an offering prior the end of the year. Again, note the large
increase in consumer credit.
In short, what we see here is a fairly stable financial system.