Thursday, August 18, 2011

Thursday Oil Market Analysis

The overall trend in the oil market is down. Prices peaked in April and May at the 115 level and have since been moving lower. They spent three months (May, June and July) fluctuating around the 100 level before moving lower at the beginning of this month in reaction to a weak US GDP revision and overall market weakness. However, prices have bounced back and have hit the 10 day EMA as upside technical resistance.

All of the shorter EMAs are below the 200 day EMA and the shorter EMAs are all moving lower.

Over the last five days, prices formed an upward sloping wedge, the lower bound of which have been violated. Prices are now looking at support in the 86 level. Prices are clustering around the 85-88 area. We've seen three sharp rallies to the upper bounds of that range, only to see prices move lower.

Fundamentally, we're at the end of the summer driving season when US demand spikes upward. In addition, there is concern about the pace of economic expansion in the rest of the developing world, leading to less upward pressure on prices. There is also now a tremendous amount of upward resistance to price advances. There is little reason to see oil moving meaningfully higher in the current environment.