- by New Deal democrat
The Federal Reserve has reported that Industrial Production rose 0.8% in August. July's number was also revised up 0.4% to 1.0%. April through June were revised lower. Capacity utilization also rose +0.9% to 69.6% (which still means that industrial capacity is unlikely to be fully utilized for a long time to come).
Industrial Production is one of 4 or 5 metrics that are typically used by the NBER to date the end of recessions, and it typically makes a "v" bottom. That appears to have been the case again in this recession, given the +1.8% rise in only two months.
I will be examining the relationship of Industrial Production to jobs tomorrow. Not just the rise, but the strength of the upturn are important. Then, hopefully on Friday, I will start to discuss the "Holy Grail" leading indicator for job growth.