Tuesday, August 11, 2009
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The treasury market has three big problems: a rallying stock market, massive supply and an increased risk appetite. All of these are adding to the downward pressure on the Treasury market.
Prices are currently in a downward sloping channel with a decreasing RSI and MACD. Also note the very bearish orientation of the EMAs -- the shorter EMAs are below the longer EMAs and all the EMAs are moving lower.
Also note the riskier parts of the bond market are rising.
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The investment grade bond market is rallying, as is
The junk bond market
Given the supply coming onto the market, I would not expect a rally in the Treasury market.