- by New Deal democrat
My thoughts on how today’s midterm elections might shake out are expressed pretty well by this thread by MTSW on Bluesky:
Recall that poll forecasts themselves, in addition to all the problems he cites, *themselves* move the electorate, as do reports on who has been voting early. So I expect the polls to be wrong. The question is, how broadly and in which direction? There’s evidence that late deciders have been shifting towards Democrats, but that’s about as far as I trust those results.
But I think the above framing is a good one: today is likely to be “2018+.” The anti-T—-p hatred is hotter. Unlike past elections, his demand for total devotion means that no GOPer’s have been able to run campaigns based on their alleged “independence” or bipartisan credentials. In November 2018 consumer inflation was 2.5% YoY, and gas cost $2.86/gallon. T—-p hadn’t gotten the US involved in a war; and the 2018 tax cuts, as opposed to last year’s Big Bad Billiionnaire Bust-Out Bill, didn’t come into effect until after the midterm elections.
So while in my head I am very cautious, in my heart I am expectiing a 1974-style shellacking. We’ll see.
What I will be watching:
1. Per Dan Guild, Florida counts its votes very quickly. Frequently you will know how the vote has been breaking by 8:30 pm eastern time, and almost certainly by 9 pm. While the gerrymanders are likely to work, there is a governor’s race, where the average poll has the Democrat losing by about 4%. This in contrast to the 58% to 40% blowout in 2022, and the 52% to 47% loss in 2018. So I will be looking to see how the governor’s race appears to be panning out compared with those benchmarks.
2. Two Senate contests on the East Coast can also give us some early information: Susan Collins in Maine (D+3% on average) and Lindsay Graham’s sister in SC (D-1% on average). If either of those gets called early - and in which direction - it will give us a good sense of how other races are likely to break.
3. Three Congressional races in the Virginia Tidewater: VA-2, -1, and -5. VA-2, which includes lot of military voters in places like Virginia Beach, has been perennially close, on the order of 51%-49% to 53%-47% in favor of whichever party goes on to win nationwide. I will be looking to see who wins, and whether there is a breakout towards the Democratic side. The other two districts have been rated “toss-up” (VA-1) and “lean GOP” (VA-5). But the former averaged a 10%-13% in favor of the GOP incumbent in 2018, 2022, and 2024. In the latter district, the lean has been in favor of the GOP by 6% in 2018, and about 15% in 2022 and 2024. If either of these flip, it will be a very bad night for the GOP. If both do, it will be catastrophic. Even if they don’t flip, it the GOP margin is close enough, it will be a long night for the GOP nationwide.
4. A few outliers: Did voters in Michigan who responded to polls hide anti-MOOSlim feeling? If so, El Sayed might lose. Have White voters in the Deep South been enervated by the economy and/or corruption, vs. Black voters burning with homicidal rage at the gutting of the VRA? If so, there could be upsets where Black Democratic candidates in Mississippi, Arkansas, and/or Louisiana pull off victories.
We’ll find out soon enough.
