- by New Deal democrat
Let’s take our regular weekly look at jobless claims, a very good short leading indicator. To cut to the chase, nobody is getting laid off - still.
Initial claims rose 2,000 to 206,000, while the four week moving average rose 1,500 to 207,250. Both of these remain very low numbers on a historical basis. With the usual one week delay, continuing claims rose 8,000 to 1.779 million, typical for the post-pandemic era:
On the YoY% basis more important for forecasting, initial claims were down -12.7%, the four week average down -10.1%, and continuing claims down -8.2%:
These are *very* positive numbers, consistent with a good economic expansion.
Finally, let’s take our last look at what this suggests about the unemployment rate over the next few months:
All of the pressure is to the downside, i.e., the unemployment rate declining towards 4.0% or even lower. We’ll find out if that was the case in August tomorrow.
