- by New Deal democrat
Occasionally on Sundays I have posted on things other than the economy. Some dramatic poll results I saw this past week called out for such a post.
A popular poster over at Bluesky named Micah posted what comes pretty close to my overall view of the 2024 Presidential campaign:
My theory of the Harris campaign, which makes exactly nobody happy: 1. she was put in an incredibly deep and arguably insurmountable hole by Biden 2. she made significant errors, largely in not separating herself from him enough 3. her results were still in the upper range of plausible outcome
Every incumbent party on the planet got walloped and Harris/Dems did better than almost all of them She overperformed in swing states where she campaigned heavily compared to the rest of the country She absolutely could have run a better campaign (Gaza!) I don’t know if it would have been enough
Given what she was handed, I think Harris ran as close to a perfect campaign as could have been reasonably expected.
But what I wanted to focus on in this post is his mention of her position on Gaza, which was to embrace Biden’s position of unwavering support for Israel.
I’m not sure if supporting the civilian population of Gaza would have on net gained her votes, because there is a significant bloc in the Democratic Party which would refuse to vote for anything short of complete support for Israel.
But whether or not that was true in 2024, the below poll results from Gallup published several weeks ago strongly indicates that US support for Israel is on borrowed time.
The headline result was that, for the first time, more respondents sympathized with Palestinians than supported Israelis, by 41%-38%:
But that isn’t the biggest result. Rather, it is the breakdown of support by *age* that is most breathtaking.
Americans over 55, most of whom remember the 1974 Yom Kippur War, and many who remember the 1967 War, continue to support Israel by a large margin, 49%-31%:
But middle-aged Americans, ages 35-54, now decisively sympathize with Palestinians, by 46%-28%:
And the most shocking result of all, Americans adults younger than 35 sympathize with Palestinians by a decisive 53%-23%:
Unsurprisingly, a similar survey from a year ago found that the deterioration in sympathy towards Israel was across the political spectrum, but most dramatic among Democrats. Negative views towards Israel among GOP supporters rose from 27% to 37%, but among Democrats it rose from a slim majority of 53% to a decisive one of 69%. In both cases younger adults (below age 50) ended with majority antipathy towards Israel, 50% among GOP leaners and 71% among Democrats:
Usually, basic political attitudes are formed while a person is very young, and are maintained throughout adulthood. Not only do the above polls show that attitudes have been shifting against Israel even among older age groups, but that a solid majority of younger Americans no longer support it politically. Under the theory that “progress will be made, one funeral at a time,” it seems likely that support for Israel will become toxic across all the political spectrum except for some hard core GOPers within 10 years. The only mitigating factor, as for as Israel is concerned, is that power in Washington is concentrated towards a Gerontacracy, but even so, unless there is a complete reversal of trend, how much longer can Israel hold on to American political - and even more importantly, military and diplomatic - support? And without such support, what is its future then?
