- by New Deal democrat
Industrial production is much less central to the US economic picture than it was before the “China shock,” but it remains an important if diminished economic indicator, particularly since the month it has peaked in the past has typically been the month the NBER has chosen as the economic cycle peak.
In December, headline industrial production (blue in the graph linked to below) rose 0.4%, with previous months revised higher 0.2% on net, establishing a new post-pandemic high, although it remains -1.3% below its 2018 all-time high. Manufacturing production (red) increased 0.2%, and prior months were also revised higher by 0.2%, but it remained slightly below its September 2025 post-pandemic high:
The difference between the two is mainly due to utility production, which rose 2.6% for the month, and was higher by 2.3% YoY. And all of 2025 on average set new all-time records for production, most likely driven by AI data center needs:
Despite the influence of utility production, this was a positive report, adding to the evidence we have seen in durable goods orders and regional Fed manufacturing reports in the past few months indicating that manufacturing production in particular has been improving. This in turn is most likely due to the lack of new tariff gyrations, and producers having found a modus operandi to deal with the effects of previously imposed tariffs.
That being said, the next comprehensive report on personal income and spending will be crucial to determining whether the autumn lull or downturn in important coincident economic data ended after the end of the government shutdown or not.
