- by New Deal democrat
The QCEW for Q1 of this year will be released at 10 AM Eastern time this morning. It should also finalize the numbers for last year. Why is that important? Because it will also set the preliminary benchmark revisions for the monthly jobs numbers last year and into this year. I expect to report on that later, but in the meantime here is something else of interest . . .
Last week the monthly sales numbers of light vehicles (cars, SUVs, pick-up trucks) and heavy trucks were reported for August, and they suggested that this important industrial and consumer durable good sector is rolling over.
First, here is the historical look:
The important thing to notice here is that the heavy trucks component typically rolls over first, and more decisively, while light vehicle sales are noisier, although when smoothed are also a leading indicator going in to recessions (heavy truck sales also pick up later, making them a lagging indicator coming out of recessions).
Here is the post-pandemic picture:
Heavy truck sales in August made a 3 year low, down almost -25% from their peak.
This is a typical decline right on the cusp of past recessions.
Additionally, after some tariff front-running and backlash, August car sales came in significantly off their previous peak at the end of last year, suggesting that these sales too may be trending down.
Only one indicator, of course, and no indicator is perfect. But recall that the typical paradigm is that after housing, durable industrial goods and then durable consumer goods turn down in advance of recessions. This report is evidence that the latter is happening now.
