- by New Deal democrat
I don’t have time to write a complete report on the ISM manufacturing index for July, and the construction spending report for June, both of which were reported this morning, so I will do that Monday when the ISM services report also comes out.
In the meantime, here is this bullet point summary.
Both reports were negative.
The headline ISM number, 48.0 and the new orders number, 47.0, were contractionary. Additionally, the three month average for both the headline and new orders portions declined further into contraction.
Both the headline and residential components of nominal construction spending declined. In the case of residential spending, it was the 11th decline in the past 12 months. Even without taking inflation into account, residential construction spending is down -7.1% from that peak.
If the ISM services numbers on Monday are weak enough, that will almost certainly be enough for me to go on “recession watch.”
