- by New Deal democrat
Let’s take our typically weekly look at jobless claims. I do this because there are a very good and timely short leading indicator for the labor market.
Initial claims rose 11,000 to 219,000. The four week moving average rose 4,000 to 216,750. With the typical one week delay, continued claims rose 36,000 to 1.886 million:
On the YoY% basis which is more important for forecasting purposes, initial claims were up 2.8%, while the four week average was up 1.6%. Continuing claims were up 4.0%:
This continues the spate of neutral, “steady as she goes” numbers. The labor economy is expanding, but not at any robust rate.
Here is our final look at the forecast trend in the unemployment rate, which will be updated in tomorrow’s January jobs report:
On a monthly basis, initial claims are up 2.8% from one year ago, and initial + continuing claims are up 4.7%. Since the unemployment rate was 3.8%, this suggest the unemployment rate should be trending towards 4.1% or 4.0%. As it was 4.0% in December, this suggests it will be unchanged or decline -0.1% when we get the report tomorrow.
