- by New Deal democrat
In the past couple of weeks, the spread between the 10 year and 2 year Treasury has normalized; that is to say, the interest rate on the 10 year once again is higher than the interest rate on the 2 year. A number of articles have claimed that this portends a recession in the next few months.
Not so fast! Says I. When you look at the entire history of that interest rate spread, and you consider other, similar Treasury interest rate spreads, a much more complex, even contradictory signal appears.
This article is over at Seeking Alpha. As usual, clicking over and reading will hopefully be enlightening as to the value of this economic indicator, and reward me a little bit for my analysis.
