- by New Deal democrat
[Note: I’ll put up a post discussing Q1 GDP later today.]
Initial and continuing claims continued their snooze-fest this week.
Initial claims declined -5,000 to 207,000, continuing their nearly 3 month long range of between 200-220,000 per week. The four week average declined 1,250 to 213,250. This average has remained in the 200-225,000 range for over half a year! Finally, with the typical one week delay, continuing claims declined -15,000 to 1.781 million:
As per usual, for forecasting purposes the YoY range is more important. Here, initial claims were down -1.0%, the four week average down -1.8%, and continuing claims higher by 3.4%, still the lowest comparison for continuing claims since February 2023:
Needless to say, this is potent evidence that we can expect the economy to continue to expand in the next few months.
As you also might expect, with initial claims lower YoY for the month of April so far by -2.9%, this also suggests that the unemployment rate will trend lower YoY over the coming months, towards 3.7% or even 3.6%:
Since initial claims (and to a lesser extent continuing claims) lead the unemployment rate, the Sahm rule for recessions is not going to be triggered.
