- by New Deal democrat
[Reminder: I’m still traveling, so with no economic news, don’t expect a post tomorrow.]
Initial jobless claims declined to 230,000 last week. The more important 4 week average increased to 236,750. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, declined slightly to 1.702 million:
The YoY% change in the 4 week average, more important for forecasting purposes, increased to 11%, and measured monthly so far for August is up 10%::
This indicates some continued weakening in the jobs market, and at 10% on a monthly basis, renews a yellow caution flag. But to signal an oncoming recession requires 2 months in a row of a 12.5% YoY or higher increase in claims. While the current situation continues to suggest that the unemployment rate will increase perhaps 02% or even 0.3% in the coming months, there is no recession signal in this metric currently.
