Thursday, September 8, 2022

An update on oil and gas prices


 - by New Deal democrat

After stabilizing in the $87-$94 range for a little over a month, oil prices have declined further in the past several days. As of this morning they were in the $82/barrel range. The YTD graph via CNBC below shows that they have now completely reversed the Ukraine invasion increase that began in February (perhaps linked to Ukraine’s counteroffensive of the past week?):

Gas prices follow oil prices with typically a delay of several weeks. As shown above, oil prices peaked in early June, and gas prices at mid-month. 

So here is a 9 month graph, via GasBuddy, of gas prices:

The declines in gas price declines slowed down a couple of weeks after those of oil. As of this morning, nationwide gas prices averaged $3.72.

Just before the Ukraine invasion, gas prices averaged about $3.50/gallon. If oil prices hold in this new, lower range, we could see gas prices back at that level in several weeks.

This in turn would support more consumer spending, a pop in consumer confidence, and in Biden’s approval rating - as well as another good month on the consumer price index front.