- by New Deal democrat
[Programming note: I’ll discuss some of the innards of the March jobs report in further detail in the next day or two, as well as update the Coronavirus dashboard, with particular emphasis on the likely trajectory of BA.2. Since most States don’t bother any more to report on the weekends, there’s no point in doing that today.]
In addition to the jobs report, Friday gave us updates on manufacturing and construction.
The ISM manufacturing index, and especially its new orders subindex, is an important short leading indicator for the production sector. While the index remained positive, its more leading new orders component stumbled.
In March the index declined from 58.6 to 57.1, and the new orders subindex declined from 61.7 to 53.8, the lowest since 2020. Since the breakeven point between expansion and contraction is 50, these remain positive, (note the graph below does not contain the latest numbers):