- by New Deal democrat
Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession
These are leading sectors for the economy overall, and will help us gauge how strong the rebound from the pandemic will be. These were mixed:
Wages of non-managerial workers
Aggregate hours and wages:
Other significant data:
This month saw two very different components of the overall jobs report. The establishment survey, which tells us how many jobs were added or lost in various sectors, was very strong, while the household report, which tells us things about unemployment and underemployment, was very weak although still positive.
There was lots of good news in the hardest hit sectors of leisure and hospitality and eduction, which were responsible for over half of all the job gains; while manufacturing, construction, and professional and business services were either weakly positive or even slightly negative. Wage growth also continued strongly, which is certainly good news.
On the other hand, full time jobs as measured in the household report actually declined. But both permanent and temporary layoffs decreased, as did the newly unemployed, as did involuntary part time employment - all of which are very good.
Putting everything together, this month’s report showed substantial and steady progress, but nowhere near enough to fully recover from the pandemic for many months to come (and that’s not taking into account what may await as a result of increasing COVID cases due to the “delta” variant).