- by New Deal democrat
As I have said for the past few weeks, new jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. With the number of those vaccinated continuing to increase, I have been expecting a big increase in renewed consumer and social activities, with a concomitant gain in monthly employment gains - as we saw in the March jobs report.
Here is the close up since last August (recall that these numbers were in the range of 5 to 7 million at their worst in April of last year):
Continuing claims, which historically lag initial claims by a few weeks to several months, and which are reported with a one week lag, in something of an unusual occurrence, failed to make another new pandemic low this week. While the unadjusted number did decline 87,991 to 3,936,696, which was a new low, the seasonally adjusted number of continuing claims rose by 4,000 to 3,731,000: