Wednesday, September 2, 2020

Coronavirus dashboard for September 2: Trumpism still kills

 - by New Deal democrat

Total US cases: 6,073,840
Cases, 7 day average: 42,304
Total US deaths: 184,604
Deaths, 7 day average: 888

Source: COVID Tracking Project

US cases by region:

US deaths by region:

Superficially, this looks somewhat promising, as both cases and deaths have declined. But note that cases have flattened in the past week or so without further declines. This is particularly of concern, because the number of *tests* administered *has* declined somewhat over the past few weeks, as shown in the graph below of tests vs. cases, for the total US

In the Northeast, testing has actually *increased,* without finding any more new cases (not shown). That’s good! But here are the other three regions:

Tests vs. cases, Midwest:

Tests vs. cases, West:

Tests vs. cases, South

In the Midwest, testing and cases have increased essentially in tandem. In the West, testing has plateaued, while new cases have declined, so the decline is probably real.

But in the South, the decline in new cases up until several weeks ago was matched by a similar decline in tests. In other words, had testing not declined, new cases probably would not have declined either. And in the South, the “true” number of cases compared with other regions is probably still substantially higher than shown.

Short version: Trumpism still kills.