Wednesday, July 1, 2020

June data starts out with a bright spot in manufacturing

 - by New Deal democrat

Earlier this week the last of the regional Fed Districts, Dallas, reported their manufacturing indexes for June. The overall picture has been a strong rebound:
Regional Fed New Orders Indexes
(*indicates report this week) 
On a month over month basis, the average is up +36 from -30 to +6
The regional Fed indexes almost always telegraph the direction, and sometimes the amplitude, of the ISM manufacturing index for the entire country. That was certainly the case for June.
This morning the ISM reported that manufacturing in the US rebounded strongly, up +9.5 from a contracting reading of 43.1 to an expanding reading of 52.6. The even more forward-looking new orders subindex rose from a horrible 31.8 to a strongly expansionary 56.4:
This is good news in an important indicator. Unfortunately, whether it will remain that way in the face of renewed restrictions in States that had recklessly reopened is very much open to question.