Friday, June 21, 2019

Initial jobless claims still weakly positive

 - by New Deal democrat

I have started to monitor initial jobless claims to see if there are any signs of stress.

My two thresholds are:
1. If the four week average on claims is more than 10% above its expansion low.
2. If the YoY% change in the monthly average turns higher.

Here’s this week’s update.

The four week average is 8.6% above its recent low: 

YoY the average is -0.5% lower than this week last June.

Last June the monthly average was 222,000. With two weeks to go this June, it is 219,000:

Like so many other economic indicators at this point, initial jobless claims remain weakly positive.