Wednesday, January 3, 2018

Commodities and Inflation

Above is a group of charts that track the major commodity ETFs.  There are two groups of prices that could cause inflation to move higher.

1.) Energy prices (second from the left, second row from the top): oil obviously plays into this (upper left hand corner), but so does the price of gas (left chart on the very bottom).

2.) Industrial metals (upper right-hand corner) and copper (third from the top left):  The industrial metals ETF largely tracks copper, which is in the middle of a rally.  But other industrial metals are also increasing, such as palladium.

Is this enough to spur prices higher?  Probably now.  Energy prices only account for about 7% of the overall CPI calculation.  Food prices are responsible for approximatley 13% of CPI, and those are all decreasing.