Monday, October 14, 2013

Market Analysis: US

The US did not release any economic data last week, so all we're left with is the performance of the markets.  Let's start with the SPYs:

Remember that the overall daily chart is losing upward momentum.  While we see a rally from mid-November 2011 to early August, we now have prices moving in more od a sideways pattern.  A big key to this chart is the declining momentum in the MACD.  Also note that volume flow has been weaker. 

What is most likely happening is an overall price consolidation as the markets wait to see what happens in Washington.  Notice the red line that connects the lows of late August and mid-October.  This line would be the lower line of a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern.  Right now a price drop below 164.5/165 would be the key technical development lower, with a move below 162-162.5 being utterly deadly to the bulls.

Bulls would need to move the market about the 178 area for a break-out to occur