Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Morning Market Analysis

Last week, the Brazilian ETF was one of the best performing international ETFs of the group I watch. The top chart shows that prices gapped higher, eventually hitting the 57-5t.5 area.  The lower chart places this move in a longer, year-long context.  Prices are near the top of their trading range after the sharp fall last spring.

At this point, it's important to remember the fundamentals of the Brazilian economy: GDD growth is slowing and inflation is picking up.  The underlying fundamentals aren't conducive to a strong move higher right now.

After rallying about 25% from the beginning of December to the beginning of February, the Chinese market has been weakening, dropping almost 6.5%.  Prices are now around the 50 day EMA, and the shorter EMAs are are moving lower.  Also note that prices are weakening and momentum is declining.  Finally, an argument could be made that recent prices action is forming a head and shoulders top.

The consumer discretionary sector is powering higher.  The year long daily chart (top chart) shows that prices have moved through two key areas of resistance over the last year: 48 and 51.  The move through 48 was very important as this price level provided resistance for over 4 months. 

The lower chart shows the weekly chart, which is even more impressive.  Prices have been moving strongly higher for over a year.