Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Morning Market Analysis

The wheat market has fallen sharply over the last month or so, moving through the 200 day EMA.  The shorter EMAs are following suit, with the 10 and 20 already far through the 200 and the 50 about to follow.

Soybeans are also in a bear market -- at least by the standard metric of prices being below the 200 day EMA.  In mid-November, prices fell to levels established in late March, rallied through the 200 day EMA, buy quickly fell again.  The shorter EMAs are now through the 200 day EMA and the 50 is about to follow suit.

The corn market has just moved through the 200 day EMA and is still a bit above the levels it established in the spring of last year.  However, is is clearly in a downward sloping trend with the shorter EMAs moving through the longer.

The Australian market is still in a multi-month run.  Prices are above the 200 day EMA, and all the shorter EMAs above the 200 and rising as well.  The market has paused several times to consolidate gains (see the recent sideways move from mid December to the end of December and the recent downward sloping pennant pattern). 

The top chart shows the daily transports, which have been in a rally since the middle of November.  This has been a sharp rally, printing a strong bar on the weekly chart (see lower chart).  While both charts have a positive momentum picture and rising EMAs, the weekly chart has a negative CMF reading.