Tuesday, July 26, 2011

YoY Housing price declines lessen further in July

- by New Deal democrat

Housing Tracker's final report of asking prices in 54 metropolitan areas is in, and it shows that the YoY rate of declines continues to lessen, although at much less brisk a pace than the first half of this year. Asking prices were -4.4% less YoY in June, and -4.2% less YoY in July. Here's the updated chart:
;
Month2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
January ----7.5%-11.5%-5.8%-8.7%
February ----7.8%-12.0% -5.2%-8.4%
March ----8.3% -10.9%-5.0%-7.3%
April -2.7% -8.6%-9.6%-5.0%-6.8%
May -3.5% -9.1% -8.1%-5.0%-5.6%
June -5.0%-9.8%-7.0%-5.0%-4.4%
July -5.4% -10.4%-6.1% -5.1%-4.2%
August -6.0% -10.6%-5.5%-6.1%---
September -6.2% -11.1%-5.1%-6.6%---
October -6.7% -11.4% -4.5%-7.0%---
November -6.6%-11.7%-4.5%-6.7%---
December -7.2% -11.4%-5.6% -7.8%---

Additionally, Housing Tracker's updates continue to show that inventory is also declining.

Note that Housing Tracker is current through last week, vs. this morning's Case-Shiller report, which is an average of March, April, and May. Because of the distortions resulting from the existence and the distortions resulting from the $8000 tax credit that expired a year ago, it is interesting to compare 2011 YoY vs. 2009 as well as 2011 YoY vs. 2010. Here are the numbers - the first column is vs. 2010, the second vs. 2009:

February: -3.5% -2.7%
March : -3.9% -1.4%
April : -4.2% -0.6%
May : -4.5% 0%

In short, as the distortions abate in the YoY comparisons, I expect Case Shiller to join Housing Tracker (which is current through last week) in reporting "less worse" declines.