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The main problem with the UNG chart is the massive amount of resistance created by resistance lines A and B. Notice that area C shows prices have gotten to these levels before only to be rebuffed.
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The above chart shows more detail regarding the resistance. Notice this is the 4th advance into this area since mid-September. Prices simply haven't been able to get above the 11.80 - 12.20 level. This is a very big supply area. The question now becomes is this still a supply area? Or has the recent fundamental news changed the game?