Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Treasury Tuesdays

Click on all images for a larger image

Last week, the Treasuries were right at the 200 day SMA. They are in the exact same place today. The primary different is

1.) Prices have dipped below the 200 day SMA and moved above the average since.

2.) All the SMAs are moving lower and the SMAs are now in a bearish position -- the shorter SMAs are below the longer SMAs, all the SMAs are moving lower and prices are below the 10, 20 and 50 day SMA.

So -- will the sell-off continue?

The on balance volume indicator tells us that people have been leaving the Treasury market since right before the end of last year. But

The MACD has been heading lower for awhile and is at an incredibly ow reading indicating we might be ripe for a reversal. In addition,

The RSI just crossed above a trend line. Aslo note the current reading shows increasing price strength.

The bottom line is there are good reasons for both directions right now. However, I would keep an eye on the stock market as it appears to be the primary driver right now. So long as stocks are moving higher I would expect the Treasury market to remain weak and vica versa.