Tuesday, December 11, 2007

A Pre-Fed Look At the Market

Let's make the assumption that the Fed will lower rates today (I know -- I'm really going out on a limb with that prediction). Let's also assume the markets will like that move and rally in response (I know -- another really bold prediction). Let's finally assume that the markets will forget that the Fed is lowering rates because things really suck right now. Assuming all of that is true, let's see what the charts say about the markets.

Assuming a rally, there is little technical resistance in the SPYs way. Prices are above all the moving averages. There are a few previous highs that stand in the index's way, but the real resistance will come at about 157.50 -- the previous high from mid-October. In short -- if the SPYs want to rally, they have plenty of room to run.

Interesting note: the average volume figure has been decreasing during the last rally - about the last 6 days.

The same goes for the QQQQs. If the QQQQs want to run they have plenty of technical room to do so.

Also note that volume has been decreasing for the last 4 days.

This is a four year chart of the IWMs. Notice they are approaching the 4-year trend line.

The Russell 2000 (IWMs) has three technical resistance areas -- the 4-year trend line, the 50 day SMA and the 200 day SMA. The highest of these is the 200 day SMA which is approximately 1.6% higher then the IWMs current position.

Short version -- the IWMs are the only index that have big upside resistance. Everybody else can rally like hell.