Monday, December 10, 2007

Iran Dumps the Dollar

From Bloomberg:

Iran, the second-biggest producer of crude oil in the Middle East, has ``completely halted'' all oil transactions in dollars, the state-run ISNA news agency said, citing Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari.

Nozari said the U.S. currency was no longer reliable as the dollar continues to depreciate. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has set up a team to study pricing oil in another currency, the INSA cited Nozari as saying. The measure is designed to prevent further losses in revenue to oil exporters, ISNA reported.

At the last OPEC meeting, Iran and Venezuela were pushing hard for a switch away from the dollar. Saudi Arabia was against this move and blocked further moves away from the dollar. In other words, there are a ton of politics involved with this as well

However, OPEC has a good reason to look for an alternate way to get paid. As the chart below shows, OPEC is getting paid in a currency whose value is clearly decreasing.

Notice that:

1.) Prices are below the simple moving averages (SMA)

2.) The shorter SMAs are below the longer SMAs

3.) All of the SMAs are moving lower.

In other words, this is a great example of a bear market chart.