Wednesday, June 13, 2007

Fed Releases Beige Book

Here is a link to the release:

Here are the big points.

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Banks indicated that economic activity continued to expand from mid-April through May. Seven banks described growth in their Districts as modest or moderate: Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, New York, and San Francisco. Dallas reported growth as moderately strong, and Minneapolis said the District's economy edged up. Philadelphia reported that growth was somewhat faster than in recent months, and Richmond said growth picked up a bit. Boston characterized reports from its contacts as generally positive.

Consumer spending and retail sales were generally up in late April and May, with a number of Districts reporting that luxury items were selling better than lower-end merchandise. On net, there was little change in auto sales across the Districts, and dealers are about evenly split on whether there will be any pickup in sales over the summer. Travel and tourism remained healthy despite the recent rise in gas prices, although the rise in prices remains a concern for the summer. Except for trucking, reports from the service industries were generally positive. Declines were widely reported in the trucking industry, however. Manufacturing activity was up in a majority of Districts. There was weakness among manufacturers producing for the residential construction industry but strength among machinery and equipment manufacturers in several Districts.

There was continuing weakness in residential real estate and construction but increasing strength in the commercial real estate sector, including both office and industrial space. Half the District banks reported little or no change in overall loan demand, with strength in commercial lending and weakness in residential mortgages and consumer lending. In the agricultural sector, crop conditions improved and were generally described as good. An early spring frost harmed some winter wheat, and drought conditions caused problems in the Southeast and the far West. Oil and gas exploration increased in recent months, but coal production was down.

Hiring activity picked up in late April through May, especially for workers with specialized skills. But most Districts reported that overall wage pressures do not seem to have increased. There have been significant price increases for energy-related products and selected raw materials, but the prices of some raw materials have remained stable.