Sunday, February 11, 2007

The Week Ahead

It's going to be a busy week:

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A few points:

I've been critical of the retail sales numbers for the last two months because the official number did not jibe with the news on the ground. I was right regarding November's number, which was revised down. Now we'll see about December's number.

The NY Fed and Philly Fed numbers will be very important. Most of the Fed manufacturing districts had lower numbers in their latest report. In addition, the Chicago PMI has been decreasing for the last year and dropped below 50 in the latest survey. This also ties in with industrial production. Although it rose .4% in December the 4th quarter number was negative.

Housing starts -- let's see if the builders are going to continue to add to an already overbuilt situation.

PPI -- All of the Fed governors have warned on inflation in their latest public speeches. That makes this number perhaps a bit more important.

Bernanke address Congress on Wednesday.